BuyerSeller

January 24, 2026

(January 2026 Market Update)

Late December is typically one of the slowest times of the year for real estate. Buyer activity usually slows, sellers wait until spring, and the market takes a collective pause.

That’s not what happened this year.

Buyer activity across Frisco and Prosper was stronger than expected during what is normally a very quiet season. And if that momentum continues, it could quietly shift the balance of the housing market as we head into spring.

In this January market update, I want to walk through what’s happening nationally, what the local data is showing for Frisco and Prosper, and what it all means if you’re considering buying or selling in 2026.

A Quick National Snapshot

At a national level, three important things happened in the housing market in 2025:

1. Inventory grew
Buyers finally had more options than they’ve had in several years. While the market is still undersupplied overall, the increase in available homes changed the dynamic significantly.

2. Home price growth cooled
Prices didn’t crash, but they also didn’t continue rising at the aggressive pace we saw in prior years. In many markets, prices flattened out — which is actually a healthier environment long term.

3. Mortgage rates moved lower
Rates didn’t fall in a straight line, but we did see improvement over the course of the year, helping bring more buyers back into the market.

These national trends set the stage for what we’re seeing locally.

The Lock-In Effect Is Starting to Fade

One of the most important — and least talked about — shifts in the market right now is the change in mortgage-rate lock-in.

For the first time, there are now more homeowners with mortgage rates at 6% or higher than there are homeowners with rates at 3% and below.

Why does that matter?

For years, homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates felt stuck. Giving up a 3% rate made moving feel almost impossible. As that group shrinks, the psychological and financial barriers to selling are easing.

That doesn’t mean everyone suddenly wants to move — but it does mean more homeowners can move. And that’s one of the reasons we’re seeing inventory improve.

What’s Happening in Frisco & Prosper

When we zoom in on the local data for Frisco and Prosper, we see many of these national trends playing out at the neighborhood level.

Home prices have largely leveled off, rather than continuing to spike or decline sharply
Inventory has increased, giving buyers more options and leverage
Price reductions are more common, which means pricing strategy matters more than it has in years

This combination points to a market that feels more balanced than what we experienced in 2021 and 2022.

What This Means for Buyers

For buyers, this is a more favorable environment than we’ve seen in quite some time.

There are more homes to choose from, less urgency to make rushed decisions, and more room for negotiation — especially on homes that aren’t priced correctly.

That doesn’t mean every home is a deal, but it does mean buyers can be more strategic.

What This Means for Sellers

Homes are still selling — but how you price and present your home matters.

The days of simply putting a home on the market and letting buyers compete are largely behind us. Sellers who price realistically and prepare their homes properly are seeing success, while others may struggle.

Watch the Full Video Market Update

In the video below, I walk through the full data — including charts for median home prices, inventory levels, and price reductions — and explain what I’m seeing in real time.