Last fall, headlines about a housing market correction in 2023 were everywhere. Home prices were expected to fall between 15% and 20% on average as higher mortgage rates would evaporate buyer demand.

Instead, the housing market has shown incredible resilience, even in the face of higher mortgage rates, and home prices are actually rising again in many parts of the country.

In this blog, I’m going to share the latest home price data, show you what’s happening here in Frisco, TX, and let you know where the experts believe home prices are heading for the rest of 2023.

Watch the following video, or continue reading below, to learn more;

Are Home Prices Falling?

Many buyers, who put their home searches on hold in 2022, first because of rapidly rising prices and bidding wars, then because of soaring mortgage rates, are finding the reality of the current market is not matching their expectations.

As mentioned above, the headlines from last fall left many buyers expecting to find a market with significantly lower prices and more homes to choose from this spring., but that isn’t always the case as Selma Hepp, Chief Economist of CoreLogic points out;

So Why Aren’t Home Prices Falling?

It really comes down to inventory. Even though inventory is higher than a year ago, there still aren’t enough homes for sale to satisfy current levels of demand.

As a result, the experts are starting to revise their forecasts on what home prices will do in 2023 overall.

Here is how Fannie Mae revised their forecast from March to April;

That is a pretty significant revision in just one month.

Ultimately though, all real estate is local and what you see and hear on the news might not be an accurate reflection of what we are experiencing here in Frisco and the surrounding areas as pointed out by Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, Realtor.com;

Frisco, TX Home Prices

What many potential home buyers don’t realize is that we saw home prices decline in the summer and fall of 2022, before many of the headlines about 2023 price declines were even released.

Here’s how the median sales price in Frisco has changed over the past year;

Home prices in Frisco peaked in April 2022, before declining until August. After holding steady for a couple on months, prices increased again in November and December due to strong new home sales encouraged by builder incentives.

Pricing dipped in February due to fewer new construction homes being included in the data before recovering in March.

The median sales price of $665,000 in April 2023 is 12.5% lower than our peak in April 2022, but I expect our year-over-year numbers will turn positive again in the next couple of months due to the fact prices were declining last May through August but are holding steady now and likely to increase month-over-month going forward.

Keep in mind that closed sales data is like looking in a rearview mirror. It’s showing us what happened in the past.

Homes that closed in April were probably listed for sale in January, went under contract in February or March, before closing in April.

Those are some of our slower months of the year and mortgage rates had not yet started declining as they are now.

You can get a good indication of where home prices are heading by looking at the median list price data.

On this graph you can clearly see the price of new listings is trending upward;

Bottom Line

The housing market here in Frisco, TX and the surrounding areas remains strong. In January, homes were selling for an average of 95% of list price, showing that sellers were more open to negotiating. In April, homes sold for 99.8% of list price and I am seeing, and hearing, of more multiple-offer situations with some homes selling for over list price.

Useful Tools

The best way to stay up to date on what is happening in our local market is with my Weekly Market Report. The Weekly Market Report will show the latest trends on pricing, the number of homes for sale, and more. Here is a link to my latest Frisco Market Report. Using the search feature from this report, you can see the latest date for any city/zip code in the country.

If you currently own a home and want to see if home prices are increasing or decreasing in your neighborhood, consider subscribing to my Homeowners Report.

If you have questions about the market or a specific situation you would like to discuss in more detail, Schedule a Call as I’d be more than happy to talk to you.

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