The real estate market in 2025 feels like a tale of two worlds.

Some sellers are still pricing their homes like it’s 2021, while many buyers are acting like we’re on the verge of another 2008 crash. From what I’m seeing here in Frisco — both are wrong.

In this post, I’ll cover:

✅ National mortgage rate and inventory trends
✅ How Frisco’s housing market is actually performing
✅ What this means if you’re buying or selling a home in 2025

(You’ll also find the full video update embedded below for a complete breakdown with charts and commentary.)

Mortgage Rates: Stability is the New Story

Mortgage rates surged through 2022 and peaked in late 2023. Since then, they’ve stabilized in the 6.5% to 7% range — not low, but far less volatile.

Fannie Mae, MBA, and Wells Fargo project rates to hold between 6.0% and 6.6% through 2026. If you’re waiting for 4.5% rates, it’s unlikely in the near future.

Mortgage rates have moved within a narrow range for the past few months, and that rate stability along with improving inventory and slower home price growth are an encouraging combination.
— Sam Khater, Freddie Mac Chief Economist

This stability has brought more buyers and sellers back into the market. In fact, weekly mortgage applications are up 18% year-over-year, a strong leading indicator of future home sales.

Mortgage Rate Projections Through 2026

Looking ahead, most experts agree that mortgage rates are not expected to fall dramatically, but instead hover within a relatively narrow band.

• Fannie Mae: Projects rates around 6.1% in 2025, drifting toward 6.0% in 2026.

• MBA: Forecasts a slightly more optimistic decline, closer to 6.0% flat by late 2026.

• Wells Fargo: Aligns with a range between 6.3% and 6.6% through 2026.

What this means: while rates may ease slightly, buyers shouldn’t expect a return to the historically low 3%–4% range anytime soon. Instead, the stability we’re seeing now is likely the “new normal” for the next couple of years.

National Inventory Trends: A Tale of Regions

Inventory is what’s shaping today’s market:

• South & West → biggest gains in supply, longer time on market, more price cuts.

• Northeast & Midwest → still tight supply, with multiple offers in some areas.

Nationwide, inventory remains 13.4% below pre-pandemic levels, but Texas overall is up 32.1% compared to before 2020.

This creates very different dynamics depending on where you live. In the South (including Texas), the market is leaning toward buyers. But as you’ll see next, Frisco doesn’t quite fit the statewide trend.

Frisco TX Housing Market: Stable, Not Surging

While Texas overall shows a big increase in supply, Frisco’s inventory has only returned to pre-pandemic levels, not exceeded them.

• July 2025: 1,062 active listings

• June 2019: 1,032 active listings

• June 2018: 1,063 active listings

Despite Frisco’s massive growth over the past 6 years, available homes are nearly identical to 2017–2019.

While Frisco has experienced a softening of prices, some neighborhoods more than others, it hasn’t seen dramatic price drops like Austin or other Texas markets.

Frisco Home Prices: Holding Steady

• Median sales price (July 2025): up 1.4% year-over-year

• Prices have bounced slightly month-to-month but remain stable overall

Median list prices show very little movement either, which is reinforced by absorption trends: in every price segment, more homes are currently selling than are being listed. Inventory appears to have peaked for 2025 and is flattening out.

Price Reductions: Slowing Down

While 57% of homes required a price cut before going under contract, the 7-day trend line shows reductions flattening.

This is typical for this time of year and suggests the market is stabilizing rather than declining further.

CLICK HERE to See the Complete Frisco Market Report

Diamonds vs. Deals: What This Means for You

Here’s the bottom line:

• Sellers: It’s not 2021 anymore. Perfectly updated homes (especially with pools) are still selling fast and for top dollar — the diamonds. But homes needing updates are selling only if priced as a deal.

• Buyers: It’s not 2008 either. Prices are stable, not crashing. Many of the best builder incentives on quick move-in homes have already been snapped up, and builders are scaling back offers.

In other words:

• If you’re ready to buy, waiting could mean missing the best inventory.

• If you’re selling, pricing strategy is everything.

Watch the Full Video for Complete Insights

I’ve only scratched the surface here. To see all the charts, breakdowns, and commentary, watch the full August 2025 Frisco Market Update below:

Next Steps

Thinking about buying or selling in Frisco, Prosper, or the immediate surrounding areas?

📅 Schedule a FREE 30-minute consultation — we’ll go over your situation and I’ll share exactly what’s happening in your neighborhood.

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