Frisco, TX Real Estate Market Update - May 2024

Welcome to your Frisco, TX real estate market update for May 2024, where I provide you with the latest insights and trends in our local market.

Will home prices continue to rise? Are high mortgage rates keeping buyers out of the market?

These are just a couple of the items I address in this month’s update.

Whether you're considering buying or selling a home, staying informed about the current market conditions is essential. For those who would prefer watching a video, scroll down to find a detailed video on this topic.

Home Prices and Market Trends

Despite recent headlines suggesting home price increases of 4%, 5%, and even 6% year-over-year across various parts of the country, the data for Frisco tells a slightly different story. While we haven't seen those high levels of appreciation, Frisco's median sales price has still increased. As of April, the median sales price for single-family homes in Frisco was $690,000, up 2.4% year-over-year.

Although closed sales data is a useful reference point, it is not the best predictor of what home prices are going to do in the months ahead.


Closed sales are like looking in the rear view mirror in your car. The sales that closed in April were predominantly made up of homes that were listed for sale in December or January, the slowest time of our real estate year and the time at which home prices are the lowest.


A better gauge of what home prices are going to be doing in the months ahead is to follow the median list price trend, The vast majority of homeowners putting their homes are the market now are doing so to sell, not “test the market.”.


According to April’s data, the median list to sell price ratio was 100%, which means the majority of homes are selling for the price at which they are listed. With that is mind, here is a graph showing the median list price trend in Frisco, TX.

The dashed line represents the 7-day pricing trend. If you look at the far right hand side of the graph you will notice the line has been fairly flat for the past couple of months.

That is a strong indication that home prices are flattening. Click Here to see the full graph in more detail.

Will the continue?

Much depends on what happens with mortgage rates, which I cover in more detail below.


Increased Market Activity


Interestingly, despite high mortgage rates and rising prices, market activity in Frisco remains strong:


  • Pending Sales: Up 15.8% tear-over-year

  • Closed Sales: Up 13.8% year-over-year


This indicates there is still robust demand for homes in our area, driven in part by new construction. When you isolate just new construction activity, pending sales have surged by 66.7% year-over-year, highlighting the significant impact of new developments in Frisco and neighboring areas like McKinney, Prosper, and Celina.

Mortgage Rates: What to Expect

Mortgage rates have stayed higher than initially forecast. Previously, it was widely believed rates would drop below 6% by the end of this year, but the latest forecast shows that is no longer the case.

If we take a closer look at the forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), we see that they expect rates to continue a downward trend into 2025, with rates dropping below 6% by the 3rd quarter.


Future Market Predictions


Despite predictions of a crash and plummeting home prices, the real estate market has stayed quite strong, and, as we have seen, overall activity is up year-over-year.

Saying that, it’s obvious that mortgage rates play a large role. The new home builders recognize this and have focused their incentive efforts on mortgage rate subsidies, with temporary or permanent rate buy-downs, which is why their year-over-year sales continue to grow.

As mortgage rates begin to decline, we can expect a renewed interest in the housing market. Every drop in rates tends to bring a surge in mortgage applications, which in turn can drive home prices up as inventory remains a problem. While we might not see the runaway prices of previous years, sustained growth in home values is likely.


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Contact Me for Personalized Advice


Planning to buy or sell a home? Need more detailed information about the local market? Don't hesitate to reach out! You can call or text me for immediate assistance or schedule a free 30-minute consultation. I'm here to help you navigate the complexities of buying and selling homes in our wonderful community.


Watch the Video


For a more comprehensive overview, check out my video update below. It covers all these points in detail and provides visual data to help you understand the current market trends.


Stay tuned for more updates and insights into the Frisco real estate market. As always, I'm here to help you make informed decisions and achieve your real estate goals. Thank you for reading, and I look forward to assisting you with all your real estate needs!

Key Takeaways:

  • Pending sales are up 15.8%, and closed sales are up 13.8% year-over-year.

  • New construction homes are driving market activity, with a 66.7% increase in pending sales.

  • Mortgage rates are expected to remain above 6% through Q2 2025.

  • As mortgage rates decline, buyer activity is likely to increase, leading to sustained growth in home values.

By staying informed and leveraging the resources available, you can make the best decisions for your real estate needs. Don't forget to subscribe to our weekly market reports and sign up for monthly seller updates to keep a pulse on the Frisco real estate market. If you have any questions or need personalized advice, feel free to contact me anytime.

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