Is the Frisco, TX Real Estate Market Heading for a Crash?

With the Frisco, TX housing market experiencing some noticeable changes recently, many are left wondering if we are on the brink of a downturn or even a crash. If you’ve noticed that homes are taking longer to sell and are feeling a bit of déjà vu from the 2008 market crash, you’re not alone. But is history repeating itself, or are we simply seeing a return to normalcy?

Continue reading below, or watch the following video, to learn more:

Understanding the Current Market Dynamics

First and foremost, it’s important to highlight that many economists who study the housing market are confident that we won’t see a crash in 2024 or the years immediately beyond. According to Business Insider, while many Americans fear a market crash, the data just doesn’t support this scenario. For a crash to occur, we’d need to see an oversupply of homes, and that’s simply not the case right now.

We are still facing an undersupply of homes, not an oversupply like we saw in 2008. While it’s true that the number of homes for sale has increased, it’s important to consider where this inventory is coming from. New housing supply can only come from one of three different places:


  • Existing Homes

  • New Construction

  • Distressed Properties


Inventory Breakdown


Existing Home Sales: Inventory from homeowners deciding to sell their homes has increased, but it remains well below the historical norm. For instance, in Frisco, inventory is up by about 35% year over year, but it’s still low overall. Not only have high mortgage rates kept many would be buyers on the sidelines, but high mortgage rates have also kept sellers on the sidelines as well. Not many homeowners are jumping to exchange their 3% mortgage rate for a 7% mortgage rate.


New Home Construction: New construction is abundant in Frisco and the surrounding areas, with developments popping up regularly. However, builders are playing catch-up from years of underbuilding. Many new construction communities are still selling off waitlists, indicating strong demand.



Distressed Properties: Contrary to fears of a foreclosure tsunami, the number of distressed properties remains low. Foreclosure activity has increased slightly from pandemic-era moratorium lows but is still below normal historical levels.

Expert Opinions on the Housing Market

Experts like Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, emphasize the basic laws of supply and demand. There simply aren’t enough homes to meet demand, making a crash unlikely. Similarly, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, points out that we don’t have the risky subprime mortgages or the massive oversupply that led to the 2008 crash.

What Does This Mean for You?

So, should you be concerned about the Frisco, TX housing market? The short answer is no. While buyer activity has slowed, the supply of homes remains too low to cause a significant drop in home values.

Home prices have flattened, and I expect sales will remain at a moderated pace, but the expected drop in mortgage rates could cause a pick-up in activity later in the year.

If you’re looking to stay informed about the latest trends and data, check out my weekly market report. It provides insights on home prices, inventory levels, and other key indicators. And as always, if you have any specific questions or want to discuss your situation, feel free to reach out. I’m here to help you navigate the Frisco, TX real estate market and make the best decisions for you and your family.

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