It’s been quite a month.

Between market volatility, unsettling headlines, and renewed recession talk, the phrase “the only constant is change” feels especially fitting right now. There’s a lot of noise out there, and for many people—buyers, sellers, and observers alike—it’s hard to know what to believe.

That’s why this month’s real estate update focuses on facts over fear. In this post, I’ll walk you through what’s really happening in the housing market—both nationally and locally here in Frisco, TX—and what it means if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in 2025.

📰 First, Let’s Talk About the Headlines

If you've seen warnings of a housing crash or posts claiming "6.1 million Americans are behind on their mortgage payments," you're not alone.

What many of these headlines fail to mention is context. That “6.1 million” number, for example, is based on multifamily loans—not single-family homes. The typical homeowner today is in a very different position than during the last major downturn.

40% of U.S. homes are owned free and clear
An additional 27% have more than 50% equity

So, is a wave of foreclosures coming? Based on the data—no.

📉 Recession Risk Is Growing—But What Does That Mean for Housing?

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, recently raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, up from 15% at the start of the year.

But here’s the key insight most people don’t know:

Home prices have actually increased in 4 of the last 6 recessions.

The 2008 housing crash is the exception—not the rule. In most recessions, home prices stayed stable or even went up.

💰 What About Mortgage Rates?

Here’s another interesting pattern: Mortgage rates tend to fall during recessions.

If history is any indication, lower rates could be ahead—offering opportunities for buyers and potentially more demand for sellers down the line.

📊 Expert Home Price Forecasts for 2025

The average of 23 expert forecasts currently points to +2.7% price growth nationwide in 2025.

Even the most conservative forecasts call for relatively minor movement. Bottom line: a major crash is not expected.

🏗️ Inventory Levels Are Rising—but Still Low Historically

You may have heard that new home inventory is at its highest level since 2009. That’s true—but let’s look at the full picture.

While inventory has risen, we’re still well below the overbuilt levels seen in 2007–2008. Most markets are simply catching up after a decade of underbuilding.

And the same applies to resale inventory:

Yes, more homes are hitting the market—but we’re still below pre-2020 levels.

📍 Now Let’s Zoom In on Frisco, TX

National trends matter—but real estate is hyper-local. Here's what's happening in the Frisco housing market right now:

🏷️ Median List Price – Frisco, TX

Prices have stabilized after the sharp spring increases of past years.

🏘️ Inventory Levels – Frisco, TX

Inventory is climbing but still far from what we used to see pre-COVID.

🔻 Price Reductions – Frisco, TX

Despite more listings, fewer sellers are reducing their prices—indicating strong buyer activity.

🤔 What Does This All Mean If You're Buying or Selling?

For Buyers:

More inventory means more choices—and more leverage in negotiations.

Quick move-in new construction homes are offering the best incentives I’ve seen in a while. But if rates fall later this year, expect competition to increase. Now may be the time to act while others wait.

💬 Want to know where the best deals are right now?

📅 Book a free 30-minute consultation with me

For Sellers:

Inventory is up year-over-year—but still well below historic norms.

If you're considering moving up or downsizing, the equity you've built gives you flexibility, especially while prices remain stable and buyer activity is strong.

📞 Curious what your home could sell for today?

Let’s talk strategy. Schedule a consultation

Final Thoughts

Whether you’re in Frisco or anywhere else in the country, my goal is always to give you the information, not the hype—so you can make smart, confident real estate decisions.

🎥 Prefer to watch the full update?

Watch it here:

Or just reach out and we can talk through your specific questions—no pressure, just honest advice.