If there’s one word that describes the real estate market right now, it’s uncertainty.

People are unsure about home prices. Unsure about mortgage rates. Unsure about whether a recession is coming—or even if a full-blown housing market crash might be around the corner.

Before we dive into the latest data, take a moment to watch this month’s video update. I break it down in simple terms—first from a national perspective, then zoom in on what’s happening right here in Frisco.

🎥 Watch: May 2025 Real Estate Market Update

🔍 What Buyers and Sellers Are Feeling Right Now

Recent surveys reveal a growing level of hesitation among both buyers and sellers this spring. Many are delaying decisions due to rising concern and mixed messages in the headlines.

This concern is causing many potential buyers and sellers to put their real estate plans on hold.

🧠 But What Are Experts Saying?

While many headlines fuel anxiety, the experts who follow housing market fundamentals tell a different story.

Quite the opposite, rather than fall, most experts expect home price growth to continue, but at a much most moderate pace.

📉 Mortgage Rate Projections

If you’ve been waiting for rates to drop significantly before buying, it's important to look at what the forecasts actually say.

With rates not expected to fall below 6% before 2027, if at all, waiting on rates might mean putting your plans on hold for an extended period of time and missing new home builder incentives that can get you there now.

📍 Local Focus: Frisco Housing Market

Let’s zoom in on what’s happening right here in Frisco.

While single-family home prices are up 4.4% year-over-year in Frisco, you can see from the graph below that the pace of appreciation has been fairly flat since the beginning of 2023.

Normally. new listing home prices accelerate through the spring, peak in the summer, then start to decline in the fall. Compared to previous years, you can see the trend line at the far right-hand side of the graph is much more gradual, indicating slower price appreciation.

In order for there to be a meaningful decline in home prices, let alone a crash, there would need to be a substantial rise in inventory coupled with a decline in demand. While inventory levels are higher than we have seen in several years, they are not unprecedented, as the graph below shows.

Buyer Demand is Stable

Without a doubt, home sales are down, but demand remains strong enough to prevent any meaningful price declines. The graph below shows the percentage of homes taking a price reduction before going under contract, which directly correlates to buyer demand in the marketplace.

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🧭 What It Means for You

If you’re a buyer:
Now might actually be your window. Inventory is up, competition is down, and new construction builders are offering rate incentives we might not see again.

If you’re a seller:
Homes are still selling—but pricing matters. Today’s buyers are more cautious and value-conscious. The right strategy makes all the difference.