Everyone seems to be asking the same question right now: will a recession crash home prices? With consumer confidence slipping, mortgage rates bouncing around, and home sales sluggish, there’s no shortage of uncertainty.

But here’s the surprising truth: bad news for the economy can actually mean good news for mortgage rates. And that has big implications for buyers and sellers as we move through the fall.

In this post, I’ll break down what’s really happening in the housing market nationally and locally here in Frisco. You’ll also find my full September 2025 Market Update video embedded below for a deeper dive.

National Housing Market: The Headlines vs. Reality

Recession Fears on the Rise

Economists like Mark Zandi (Moody’s Analytics) say risks of a recession are climbing, and a LendingTree survey found that two out of three Americans expect a recession. Naturally, buyers are nervous.

Mortgage Rates Hit Yearly Low

Despite the worries, the latest jobs report triggered a sharp drop in mortgage rates — the lowest we’ve seen in a year. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage applications jumped 34% compared to the same week last year. That’s a leading indicator of future buyer activity heading into late 2025 and early 2026.

Home Price Forecasts Through 2029

The big question: are prices about to crash?

Optimistic economists project 27% cumulative appreciation by 2029.
Even the most pessimistic expect 6–7% appreciation over the same period.
On average, experts see about 17% growth nationally.

Bottom line: a national price crash isn’t in the forecast. Instead, experts expect moderation, with prices leveling off and moving upward at a steadier pace.

Local Spotlight: Frisco TX Housing Market

While real estate is always local, the same themes are playing out here in Frisco.

Median Sales Price: Up 1.3% in July, down just 1.3% year over year in August — small, normal seasonal shifts rather than dramatic swings. Trend line remains fairly flat.

Median List Price: The list price trend is a leading indicator of future sales prices. As you can see on the far right hand side of the graph below, the trend line is flat.

Inventory: After climbing in spring, available homes are now trending lower again.

Price Reductions: Fewer sellers are cutting prices before going under contract, a strong leading indicator of buyer demand.

These factors point to a resilient and balanced Frisco market, with stable prices and renewed buyer activity as mortgage rates ease.

What This Means if You’re Buying or Selling

For Buyers: Lower mortgage rates and motivated sellers are creating opportunities, especially as demand begins to pick back up.
For Sellers: Pricing strategically is key. Homes are selling close to original list prices, and buyers are active — but overpricing will cause delays.

Every situation is unique, which is why I always recommend a personalized plan before making a move.

📌 Ready to Talk About Your Next Move?

👉 Schedule your free 30-minute consultation — no pressure, just clarity for your specific situation.
👉 Get the latest housing market report for your city or zip code.

The housing market isn’t crashing — it’s rebalancing. With the right strategy, you can move forward confidently whether you’re buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on the market.