Is the Frisco & Prosper Housing Market Crashing? (October 2026 Update)
Home sales are down, pending sales are down, and the median home price in Prosper has dropped more than $160,000 since June. So are the Frisco and Prosper housing markets crashing, are they just stalling, or is it a little bit of both? The answer is not what the headlines would have you believe, and it matters a lot if you are thinking about buying or selling this fall. Here are the latest single-family numbers for both cities, and what they actually mean for you.
The Short Version
No, the market is not crashing. Home prices in Frisco and Prosper dip from spring to fall every single year, and Frisco's drop this year is actually milder than normal. Prosper is softening more than usual. Underneath both, there are far more homes for sale than normal, fewer buyers going under contract, and only about half of Prosper listings are actually selling. That is a market that rewards sellers who price right and present well and buyers who are ready to negotiate.
Prices Drop Every Fall
The one thing a lot of people don't realize is that prices in Frisco and Prosper fall from spring to fall every year. It's simply the seasonality of the market. Single-family median sale price, spring high to fall:
That's a drop of roughly 10% every year. Monthly prices also carry a lot of volatility because of the mix of homes that sell: if more expensive homes sell one month than the next, the median moves with them. So a fall price drop by itself isn't the news. How this year compares is.
This Year: Frisco vs. Prosper
Frisco is actually holding up better than its normal seasonal pattern: its fall drop is milder than the last two years, and its median is up from a year ago. Prosper is a different story. Its drop from the June peak is nearly double the normal fall decline.
A word of caution: don't get too caught up in the monthly numbers, because they bounce around with the mix of homes that sell. Looking only at resale homes, Frisco is up about 1.3% from last year while Prosper is down about 14%. Looking only at new construction, Frisco is up about 4% and Prosper is up about 24%. Builders are building fewer spec homes right now, so they're putting fewer homes in the MLS, which makes new construction a small sample. Over the full past 12 months, the median price is down about 2% in Frisco and a little over 1% in Prosper, and price per square foot is down about 5% in both cities.
So is it a crash? No. Frisco is stalling, Prosper is softening a little more, and with rates where they are, it's very possible prices soften further over the next several months.
The One Number That Matters Most
Canceled listings are up 38% in Prosper and 27% in Frisco, and expired listings are up in both cities as well. What that tells me is this isn't a market where homes don't sell. Homes are selling every single day. It's a market where the homes that aren't priced and prepared for today's buyer are getting passed over, and a lot of those sellers are giving up and pulling their homes off the market.
More Homes for Sale, Fewer Buyers
The reason comes down to supply and demand:
- Homes for sale: 914 single-family homes in Frisco and 407 in Prosper in September, both running about 50% above what we normally see in September over the past six years.
- Pending sales: down about 20% from last September in both cities, and below the six-year average. Pending sales are the best early read on where the market is heading, so this is more than the normal fall slowdown.
- Months of supply: about 6.3 months in Prosper, which is buyer's market territory, and about 4.8 months in Frisco, which is fairly balanced but trending toward buyers.
The Longer a Home Sits, the Bigger the Discount
There's one pattern in the data every seller needs to see. Homes that go under contract soon after being listed usually come down about 3 to 4% from their original list price. Homes that sit 150 days or longer typically come down somewhere between 8 and 9%. If you're holding out for a higher price, that doesn't protect your number. It usually costs you more of it.
Mortgage Rates and Dallas Jobs
One of the biggest factors behind all of this is mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed was running about 7.4% when I recorded this, up from about 6.5% just last quarter. Part of that is tied to the Fed raising rates in September for the first time in about three years to combat inflation. The Fed's move doesn't set mortgage rates directly, since they track the 10-year Treasury more closely, but it does influence them, and most economists aren't predicting a meaningful drop anytime soon.
For some perspective, 7.4% is actually below the 50-year average mortgage rate, which sits in the higher sevens. And here in Dallas, job growth is still running at about 4% and climbing. The demand hasn't gone away. A lot of it is just uncertain and sitting on the sidelines.
What This Means For You
If You're Selling
- Price for this market on day one. Not to what your neighbor got last spring or what an online estimate says. Overpricing doesn't leave you room to negotiate. It costs you money.
- Condition wins. Buyers are stretched by rates, taxes and insurance, with little left for upgrades. Move-in-ready homes are selling; homes that need work are sitting.
- Incentivize the buyer. Take a page from the builders. A $20,000 price cut only lowers a buyer's payment by about $138 a month at today's rates, while the same money toward a rate buydown makes a meaningful difference.
- Know your competition. Builders have finished inventory and big incentives. Lean into what they can't offer: an established neighborhood, mature trees, a better location and a home that's ready now.
- Canceled or expired? Change the plan. Relisting at the same price with the same strategy usually gets the same result.
If You're Buying
- Get pre-approved at today's rate, even if you did it before, so you know your real budget. Talk to more than one lender. Buydowns and adjustable-rate loans with a payment fixed for the first five or seven years are worth discussing.
- Don't overlook homes that have been sitting. About 1 in 3 homes for sale in Frisco and Prosper cut their price in September alone, and those sellers are usually ready to negotiate.
- Negotiate beyond price. Ask for a rate buydown or money toward closing costs, which makes a bigger difference to your monthly payment.
- Lock your rate once you're under contract. Rates are still moving week to week.
- Don't try to time it perfectly. Price per square foot is down, inventory is high and sellers are negotiating. When rates do come down, more buyers return and competition increases.
Should You Wait?
It's a question I get often. If you absolutely don't have to move, there's nothing wrong with waiting right now, but understand why you're waiting. If it's only for rates to fall, nobody can promise you they'll come down meaningfully anytime soon. Most people buying and selling right now are doing it because life continues to happen: a new job, a new baby, moving closer to family, or a reason to downsize. If that's you, the smart move is to work with what this market is giving you rather than wait it out.
And on foreclosures: I know there's talk about them, but foreclosure activity is not higher than it has been historically. I'll be covering that in a video soon.
What Does This Mean for Your Home?
Every neighborhood and price point is behaving a little differently right now. Book a free 30-minute call and I'll walk you through exactly what I'm seeing in your part of the market, whether you're buying or selling in Frisco, Prosper, or anywhere in North Texas.
▶ Watch the full October market update on YouTube
Related: Should You Wait To Buy A Frisco Home Right Now? (how a rate buydown compares to a price cut)
Figures reflect September 2026 single-family data for Frisco and Prosper, the most recent available, from AgentIntel and the NTREIS MLS, and are for general comparison only. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Not financial advice; talk with a lender about your situation. Contact me for current, address-specific numbers.
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