What Just Happened to the Frisco & Prosper Real Estate Market
For months I told you home sales in Frisco and Prosper were going to turn down, because pending sales, the best early signal we have, were already falling. This month it happened. Sales turned, and the sharpest drop is hiding in a part of the market almost nobody is watching. Below are the latest single-family numbers for both cities, and what they actually mean whether you are buying or selling.
The Short Version
Home sales finally turned down in both cities, exactly where the pending numbers said they would. The real weakness is in new construction, where demand has pulled back hard. Resale is actually the steadier side of the market right now and may be finding a floor. Prices are softening, not crashing. And the "days on market" number most people quote is badly understating how long homes really sit. Put it together and buyers have the most leverage they have had in years, while sellers who price to last year are getting stuck.
Prices Are Softening, Not Crashing
I keep resale and new construction separate here, because blending them hides the real story. Single-family medians:
Frisco resale is down about 5% from a year ago. Prosper resale is essentially flat at just over half a percent, but remember it was up around 7% this time last year, so it has cooled off noticeably. New construction is softer, with Frisco down about 7.5%. Real numbers, real softening, but this is not a crash.
Homes Are Sitting Longer Than the MLS Shows
Be careful with the "days on market" number, because it can fool you depending on where you look. The MLS average looks healthy, but it is backward-looking: it only counts homes that already went pending or sold, which skews toward the ones that moved fast. The real-time figure, a rolling average of everything actively on the market right now, tells a very different story, and it is the number a seller listing today should actually plan around.
On top of that, roughly half of the active listings in Frisco and well over half in Prosper have already cut their price at least once, and that share keeps climbing. Homes are sitting longer, and sellers are adjusting after the fact.
The Number That Matters Most: Pending Sales
Closed sales tell you what already happened. Pending sales, the homes that just went under contract, tell you where the market is heading. For months ours were falling, and I said closings would follow. This month they did. Here is the single-family picture:
- Resale closings (the turn): Frisco 192, down 6.8%; Prosper 61, down 9.0%. A year ago Frisco resale closings were actually up almost 9%.
- Resale pending: down about 3.0% in Frisco, 12.7% in Prosper — still negative, but steadier than earlier this year.
- New construction pending: down about 70.8% in Frisco, 50.0% in Prosper — the real weakness.
- Months of inventory, resale: 6.2 in Frisco, 8.1 in Prosper (over 6 months generally favors buyers).
- Months of inventory, new construction: 4.2 in Frisco, 5.3 in Prosper — actually tighter.
Two honest caveats on new construction. The pending volumes are small, single digits, so the percentages swing hard month to month. And notice that new-construction supply is actually tighter than resale, at 4.2 and 5.3 months. That is the tell: builders have deliberately pulled back on putting up homes before they have a buyer and shifted toward building to contract, so they are carrying less standing inventory. In other words, a big part of the new-construction slowdown is a supply decision by the builders, not just buyers disappearing. Meanwhile resale is still transacting. It is not that nothing is selling. It is that buyers finally have more choice and more time than they have had in a long while.
What This Means For You
If You Are Selling
- Nationally, the story is that sellers have finally learned to price right from the start. Locally, we are not there yet.
- Half of our listings have already cut price, and homes are really sitting closer to 90 days.
- Overpriced and stubborn is the worst position: you chase the market down and reduce anyway, just slower and for less.
- Price it right on day one and make it show well, and you stand out in a sea of stale listings. Homes here are still selling.
If You Are Buying
- This is the most leverage buyers have had in years.
- Builders are especially motivated, with new-construction pendings down 50% to 70%.
- The best deals are on price, upgrades, and rate buydowns, especially on new construction.
- Nationally, new-build buyers are getting rates near 5.85% versus about 6.5% on an existing home.
On interest rates, the national forecasts have them staying in the low-to-mid 6% range into next year, so I would not count on a big drop to rescue your budget, and I would not wait for one when there is real money to negotiate today. Longer-term forecasts still call for modest price growth, which means the window where buyers hold this much leverage may not stay open forever.
Thinking About a Move in North Texas?
Every situation is different. Tell me your neighborhood, your price point, and your timeline, and I will give you my honest read on what this market means for you, whether you are buying or selling in Frisco, Prosper, or anywhere in North Texas.
▶ Watch the full market update on YouTube
Figures reflect July 2026 single-family data for Frisco and Prosper, the most recent available, and are for general comparison only. Days-on-market and price-reduction figures come from Altos Research (real-time active listings) versus the MLS (backward-looking, pending and sold). Contact me for current, address-specific numbers.
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